Macroeconomic data confirms the recovery trend in the production sector. In November, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.2%, with the production index returning to the expansion level.  The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion range for 10 consecutive months, and the new export orders index increased by over 3 percentage points month-on-month. High-end products such as integrated circuits and new energy vehicles became the main drivers of production. From January to November, integrated circuit exports increased by 25.6%, and automobile exports increased by 17.6%, driving the share of electromechanical products in exports to 60.9%, demonstrating the effectiveness of industrial upgrading.

However, some industries face supply chain constraints. This is particularly evident in the new energy vehicle sector, where tight effective production capacity of power batteries has led to delivery delays. The delivery time for popular models has generally extended to 5-6 months, with some orders even scheduled for the second quarter of 2026.  Factors such as battery resource mismatch, competition for production between energy storage and commercial vehicles, and insufficient willingness of suppliers to expand production due to price wars, have all exacerbated the delivery pressure on the production side.

On the shipping side: Cross-border logistics encounters temporary congestion, putting pressure on multiple ports to cope.

Despite logistical pressures, China's exports maintained a steady growth trajectory. From January to November 2025, goods trade exports increased by 5.4% in dollar terms, with exports to Global South countries serving as a core driver. Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 13.7% year-on-year, and exports to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 10.5%, accounting for 51% of total exports for the first time. Exports to emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America maintained rapid growth.

The export structure continued to upgrade, exhibiting a "dual-engine drive of high-end manufactured goods and key intermediate products." From January to November, exports of intermediate products such as plastic products and steel increased rapidly, contributing 1.9 percentage points to export growth in November alone. Meanwhile, the share of traditional labor-intensive products such as clothing and toys decreased to 15.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. This structural change aligns closely with the industrialization needs of Global South countries, forming a supply chain collaboration model of "R&D and core components in China, assembly and manufacturing in ASEAN."

 

Industry experts point out that the year-end export landscape reflects profound changes in China's foreign trade, with a shift in market focus from traditional developed markets to emerging markets, and a continuous increase in product added value. However, attention should be paid to short-term challenges such as logistics congestion and supply chain vulnerabilities, as well as potential trade friction risks.  Strengthening supply chain collaboration and optimizing logistics arrangements will further enhance the resilience of foreign trade.

 

As the countdown to the end of 2025 begins, manufacturing enterprises are seeking a balance between production sprints and risk management. The optimization of the export structure and the adaptation of the logistics system will lay the foundation for a strong start to foreign trade in 2026.